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End of Year Investment Report – 2009

December 31st, 2009 No comments

The Guts of the 3M Investment Club—A Different sort of Year-End Report

Team,

We started depositing money into our club nearly eleven years ago. 

It’s not an understatement to suggest that we started investing at the wrong time. 

Like most people eleven years ago, we got caught up in the trap of wanting to buy stocks because…wait for this one — they were becoming more expensive!

Of course, in our eyes, they were becoming more profitable.  But we didn’t understand history.  When stocks are rising quickly, they’re dangerous.  And when we began investing, the S&P 500 index had been compounding at 18% annually since 1982.

After many years of such easy returns, the markets needed to take a break.  And they did take a break.  If you have a look at the below chart, you can see that money invested in the S&P 500 index 10 years ago would be worth less today than in 1999. read more…

But during the past decade, we continued putting money in the markets and we turned it into profits.

When I asked you, as a group, to be greedy when others were fearful, you responded really well.  It takes a lot of guts to put money into an investment that the media (not to mention the person in all of our heads) is suggesting that we shouldn’t.

But when I asked you for money, you responded, and we were able to buy strong businesses that very few people wanted at the time.

You know when a stock is popular because the price rises.  But we didn’t buy anything “popular” and we reaped profits from that.  I thought some of you might be interested in seeing the guts of what we own, what average prices we paid, and what price ranges those stocks have gone through, using a five year chart.

To read more about the individual investments of the 3M investment club, please login with your password — the post is immediately below, or click here

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Protected: End of Year Investment Report – Detailed – 2009

December 31st, 2009 Enter your password to view comments.

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Investment Update – 14 DEC 09

December 16th, 2009 No comments


As of December 14th, 2009 :

2 Year Return:
 
The 2 year return of the 3M Investment club:  -1.3%
The 2 year return of the: S&P 500:  -24%
The 2 year return of the First World international index:  -30% …read more
The 2 year return of Fidelity’s Flagship fund (Fidelity Magellan):  -32%
 
Fun comparisons.  If we invested $10,000 two years ago, what would it be worth today? 

Because the markets are lower today, the answer would be less.  But how much less?  You can see that $10,000 invested in our club 2 years ago would have held its ground.  But it’s fun to see how well we did, comparatively:

$10,0000 invested…
 
$10,000 invested in the 3M Investment club 2 years ago would be worth:  $9,870
$10,000 in the EFA International index 2 years ago would be worth:  $7000
$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 2 years ago would be worth:  $7,600
$10,000 invested in the Fidelity Magellan Fund:  $6,800
$10,000 in The Royal Bank’s U.S. Equity fund 2 years ago would be worth:  $7,900
$10,000 in the Canadian TSX index 2 years ago would be worth:  $8,400 … read more
$10,000 in Apple stock 2 years ago would be worth: $10,300
$10,000 in  Dell stock 2 years ago would be worth:  $5,500
$10,000 in AIG stock 2 years ago would be worth:  $240 (no typo!)

To see a recent update, 3M members may login with their password and read the post immediately below.

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Protected: Investment Report – 14 DEC 09

December 16th, 2009 Enter your password to view comments.


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Can a Jaguar-driving, high salaried, mansion-dwelling family really be broke?

December 16th, 2009 4 comments


I’m going to share a crazy, personal story with you.

Before I read about Thomas Stanley’s studies of the wealthy, I always assumed that this personal experience of mine was a “one-off”– as likely to happen again as a band of mice singing Christmas carols for a family of cats. But Stanley’s studies reveal that most rich-looking people are just pretending to have money.

I was tutoring an American boy in Singapore. His mom dropped him off at my house every Saturday. She drove the latest Jaguar, which in Singapore, would have cost well over $100,000.

They lived in a huge house, and she wore an elegant Rolex watch, probably costing $4000 or more.

Anyway, after a series of tutoring sessions the woman gave me a check. She smiled, told me about her family’s latest, overseas holiday, and expressed how happy she was that I was helping her son.

The check she wrote was for $150. And after she left, I climbed on my bicycle, pedalled down the street and deposited my cheque in the bank.

But here’s the thing: the check “bounced”. Her account didn’t have enough money to cover it. This could, of course, happen to anyone. But it happened a lot. Naturally, I grew sceptical when she paid me by check. And sometimes, the woman called me on the phone, and in a desperate voice she gasped, “Could you wait until the beginning of the month to cash that check I gave you yesterday?”

Was this supposed to be happening? After all, this woman had to be rich. She drove a Jaguar. She lived in a massive house. And she wore a Rolex. And her husband was an investment banker who likely made river flows of money. She may have been an extreme example of what Thomas Stanley referred to as an “Underachiever of Wealth”. But according to this respected expert on wealth, that woman had plenty of company.

Wealthy Myth Busters

Thomas Stanley has been studying America’s wealthy for more than 30 years. Surveying wealthy and high salaried Americans has been his passion, leading to a variety of breakthrough book publications and television appearances. His revealing book, The Millionaire Next Door was on the New York Times bestseller list for more than three straight years, and his research unveiled the most comprehensive data on the wealthy that has ever been recorded.

From his books, Stop Acting Rich…and start living like a real millionaire and The Millionaire Next Door, I’ve presented some fascinating facts below—many of which might force you to re-think what it means to be wealthy and how to become financially secure.

There are high-status people with buck loads of money who buy fancy things and live like Saudi Arabian Royalty. And they can afford to do that. But most of the people you see living the life of riley are borrowers. Their salaries are high, so banks and credit card companies don’t mind loaning them streams of money. After all, the financial institutions grow rich when people borrow money to buy huge houses (the more you borrow from a bank, the more money the bank makes in interest) and the more money that’s put on credit cards, the more the bank rubs its hands together.

There’s a huge difference between looking wealthy and being wealthy. Most people who look wealthy aren’t wealthy. Most of them are just showing off. And most of the people who are actually wealthy don’t look wealthy—because they’re far more secure about money. They don’t need to flaunt it.

Thomas Stanley’s facts about the wealthy might shock you—but understanding them is the first step towards having a healthy relationship with money. And it’s the first step towards becoming rich yourself.

1. Toyotas are the most popular brand of car driven by millionaires.

If you thought most millionaires preferred Mercedes Benzs or Porsches, then you’d be wrong. And most of the people who do buy exotic cars aren’t as wealthy as you think. Many of them just borrow loads of money to make purchases intended to impress other people. Others spend most of what they make so they can look rich.

Sports stars represent an extreme example. Most NBA superstars blow the millions of dollars they make until they’re literally looking for handouts in bankruptcy court.

The Toronto Star reported that 60% of NBA players go broke within five years after retiring from professional basketball. They make millions of dollars a year and spend it frivolously on mansions and stables full of exotic sports cars and boats. These guys might be brilliant basketball players, but if 60% of them go broke within five years of retirement, that majority has as much financial intelligence as a baseball mauled by a pit-bull. Read More

I remember being fascinated by a Lamborghini SUV that Mike Tyson owned. But the former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion’s purchasing habits were just one of the many things pounding on his head towards the end of his career. One estimate suggests that Mike Tyson made more than $300 million as a boxer. Read More

 And he’s bankrupt—proving that spending like a fool can have a more devastating impact than a haymaker to the chin.

 2. The recent median price paid for a car by millionaires was $31,367.

People who aren’t millionaires, but plan on being millionaires one day, often do themselves a serious disservice when they buy expensive cars. It’s actually a dumb thing to do. Take the world record-holder in the 100 meter sprint—Usain Bolt. If you were going to race the guy, wouldn’t you want a 50 meter head start? I would!

If I was lining up at the start of a 100 meter dash line, and my competitors were all Olympic athletes, I’d try convincing them to give me a head-start. But so many “wanna-be” millionaires put themselves behind the Olympic athletes, giving the Olympians the head-start. Why would anyone be crazy enough to do that? Maybe it looks cool. Usain Bolt lines up at the 100 meter mark. And a wanna-be sprinter decides to give the man a 50 meter running advantage.

You might think, “Gosh, that guy giving Usain Bolt a break must be REALLY fast”. But the reality is different. The Olympic sprinter who begins on the start line will make the “wanna-be” look silly.

Many underachievers of wealth are doing that when buying a car. The average millionaire pays $31,367 for a car. But so many “wanna-be” rich people outdo the millionaires in the car-spending department—spending $40,000, $50,000, or more than $75,000 for a car. But how can you build wealth and reduce financial stress when you’re paying far more for a car than an average millionaire? Image is nothing if you lose your job or can’t make the car payments. And good luck finding a scientific study showing that people who drive Mercedes Benzs or BMWs are happier than people driving Hondas or Toyotas.

If you want to keep pace with millionaires, start on the start line or give yourself a bit of a lead. If you’re not a millionaire, buy a cheaper car than the average millionaire. It’s better to give yourself a head-start. It doesn’t make sense to spend more money for a car than the average millionaire would—not if you want to become rich, anyway.

3. The typical price paid for a car by millionaires with $10 million or more was $41,997.

This represents “Super-Money”: people with $10 million or more. The world’s richest man, Warren Buffett, has a car worth about $35,000. But wander down to the local mall, and you’ll see many vehicles worth more than $41,997. How many of those people do you think have $10 million or more? If your answer is close to “probably none” then you’re catching on fast.

4. Seiko and Timex are the number one and number two most common watch brands purchased by millionaires.

Seiko and Timex watches aren’t ridiculously expensive. A top Seiko (which is a very fine watch) might set you back $300. Timex watches can be bought for $30. Yet, some other name brands (including the famous Rolex brand) can set you back thousands. If you want to establish habits like the average millionaire, you won’t want to show off with an expensive watch.

Imagine that your goal is to become an Olympic figure skater. You have the best coaches and enough talent to put you on the cover of Sports Illustrated. In financial terms, this is equivalent to having an Ivy League education and a job paying hundreds of thousands a year.

But then, when you step onto the ice at a competition, you purposefully throw yourself into the air and land on your back. Then you get up and purposefully skate straight into the boards. This is a lot like getting a fantastic job, but then rushing out to buy the latest exotic car and watch. If you want to be wealthy, spend like an average millionaire, not like a high-salaried person wearing a beautiful smile for all to see—but skating along the thin ice of a river.

5. Eighty percent of millionaires are “first generational” wealthy. This means that their wealth was not inherited. They earned their wealth.

This is one of my favourite statistics. It says that the American Dream is alive and well: that it’s possible to become wealthy without wealthy parents. In fact, if only 20% of the wealthy actually inherited their wealth, it makes you wonder whether wealth can easily be transferred from one generation to the other. Perhaps easy money (like inherited money) is a lot like money won in lotteries, and windfalls earned by sports celebrities—too much of it gets flushed down the toilet. And once that happens, it’s next to impossible to get it back.

6. Only ten percent of millionaires live in homes worth $1 million or more.

Rub your eyes and read this one again. As of 2009, the majority of millionaires lived in homes worth less than $1 million. There are definitely wealthy people living in elaborate homes, but 90% of millionaires steer clear of mansions. And make no mistake, many mansion dwellers can’t really afford the houses they live in. Adopt the philosophy of the wealthy and you won’t likely ever become stressed about making house payments. Unlike former World Heavy-weight boxing champion, Evander Holyfield, nobody will ever take your home away either—because you’ll be able to afford it.

7. A full 70% of millionaires have never owned a yacht or a boat of any kind.

Boats cost a lot of money to maintain, run and store. That’s why most millionaires don’t own them.

8. Only 1% of millionaires typically serve their dinner guests wine that costs $52.50 or more

9. More than 90% of millionaires typically serve their friends wine costing in the $9 range.

I suppose most millionaires know who their friends are. They don’t need to impress them with fancy, expensive wine labels.

10. Adults who receive “helpful” financial gifts from their parents (stocks, cash, real estate etc), typically end up with lower levels of wealth than people in the same income brackets who don’t receive financial assistance.

This is the statistic that “shocks” most parents. They feel that they can help their adult kids financially—or give them a strong financial head-start—by giving them money. Statistically speaking, easy money is wasted money. Most people who receive cash gifts (help paying off loans, help buying a car, help with a down-payment on a home etc) are likely to have less wealth in the end than someone who makes the same salary, but doesn’t receive any “assistance”.

If your parents help you financially, understand these odds and be especially careful. Without knowing it, you might be on the financial endangered species list without even knowing it. The kids who haven’t been given money usually end up “hungrier” ambitions and a greater work ethic. That’s the statistical reality. So if you’re feeling badly because your parents can’t afford to “help you” financially, you’ll need to look at it differently. It’s you, my friend, who might have the eventual advantage.

It’s like a 100 meter dash. Your friend who is “helped” is given a 20 meter lead before the gun sounds. But you’re the one who has trained herself to run. Once the gun goes off, your friend will just be looking for the next push from a family member on the sidelines. And the statistical, historical odds are that you’ll eventually blow right by them.

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Is an Entire Generation Getting Ripped Off?

December 9th, 2009 No comments

My mother-in-law bought a couple of variable annuities two years ago. They “guaranteed” her money, she was told.

She could get stock market-like returns over time, but it was impossible for her account value to go below what she initially invested. At least that’s what the salesperson promised.  Too good to be true? That’s what I thought. So I did some digging and number crunching.

The funny thing is that the money you deposit isn’t guaranteed at all. I mean, if the markets collapsed, wouldn’t you be interested in getting your money back?

After all, the saleperson told you they’d protect every last penny in a market downturn. When the markets collapsed in 2008/2009, I wondered what kind of a guarantee my mother-in-law had. Could she call up the Insurance company and ask for her original deposit back.

After all, it was guaranteed, right?  The answer to that was, “No”. She had to keep the money in for 7 years or she’d end up with a stiff withdraw penalty.

When I ran the numbers on the fees she was paying, I realized that it was nearly an impossibility that her money with the Variable Annuity insurance company would beat a dull, guaranteed and very flexible Bank CD–which (for the amount she had deposited) was guaranteed by the government, and not some fledgling insurance company called AIG. Yes, AIG was the insurer issuing the “promise” that they would protect her money. Nice.

 The trouble is that these rigid, expensive products are selling like crazy.  Either the salespeople flogging them are unaware of how lousy they are or the majority of these peddlars are crooked. I’m choosing to believe that they’re just unaware. Maybe the salesman can sell himself: The sales line sounds good: You can’t lose your money. And it warms the hearts of anyone without historical stock market sense–and that’s a lot of people.

Even Suze Orman spouts off about how she hates Variable Annuities. They aren’t good for anyone but the person selling them.

Scott Burns does some number crunching and gives a deeper explanation here.

Expensive annuities are proliferating like zombies in a bad B movie. May the expensive Variable Annuity one day rest in peace.

(And always remember – if something sounds too good to be true it usually is!)

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The Joneses Just Pretend to Be Rich!

December 8th, 2009 No comments

Relax!  Most of your rich-looking neighbours or the people who we think are wealthy are just pretending to be rich , according to Thomas Stanley.

They drive fancy cars, live in flashy houses and earn salaries that support their consumption habits. But the majority of high-salaried high-rollers aren’t rich at all.  If you’ve been looking at some of your neighbours and wondering how they live so extravagantly, Stanley reveals the truth in his latest book.

Thomas Stanley has been studying America’s wealthy for more than 30 years. Surveying wealthy and high salaried Americans has been his passion, leading to a variety of breakthrough book publications and television appearances. His revealing book, The Millionaire Next Door was on the New York Times bestseller list for more than three straight years, and his research unveiled the most comprehensive data on the wealthy that has ever been recorded.

From his books, Stop Acting Rich…and start living like a real millionaire (2009)and The Millionaire Next Door, I’ve presented some fascinating facts below—many of which might force you to re-think what it means to be wealthy and how to become financially secure.

  1. Toyotas are the most popular brand of car driven by millionaires.
  2. The recent median price paid for a car by millionaires was $31,367.
  3. The typical price paid for a car by millionaires with $10 million or more was $41,997.
  4. Seiko and Timex are the number one and number two most common watch brands among millionaires.
  5. Eighty percent of millionaires are “first generational” wealthy. This means that their wealth was not inherited. They earned their wealth.
  6. Only ten percent of millionaires live in homes worth $1 million or more.
  7. A full 70% of millionaires have never owned a yacht or a boat of any kind.
  8. Only 1% of millionaires typically serve their dinner guests wine that costs $52.50 or more.
  9. More than 90% of millionaires typically serve their friends wine costing in the $9 range.
  10.  Adults who receive “helpful” financial gifts from their parents (stocks, cash, real estate etc), typically end up with lower levels of wealth than people in the same income brackets who don’t receive financial assistance.

Note: When Thomas Stanley refers to “millionaires”, he’s including people who can sell investments amounting to $1 million or more. These investments include stocks, bonds, mutual funds, income producing real estate, equity shares in private businesses, annuities, net cash value of life insurance, gold and other precious metals, CDs, T-Bills, savings bonds, money market funds, checking accounts and cash.

Data source for numbers 1-4 and 4-9: Stop Acting Rich..and start living like a real millionaire, by Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D. (2009).

Data source for numbers 5 and 10: The Millionaire Next Door (1996).

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Protected: Investment Report 4 DEC 09

December 5th, 2009 Enter your password to view comments.

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05-12-09 – Harry Still Makes Actively Managed Accounts Look Bad

December 5th, 2009 No comments

In August of 2008, our friend Harry kissed good-bye to the expensive financial products that his advisor sold him.

With annual expense ratio fees of 2.6% for his Canadian mutual funds, adding with an estimated hidden fund cost of a further 0.75% per year for the fund’s expenses related to buying and selling stocks within the fund, Harry’s investments were costing him more than 3.5% annually.

For Canadian mutual funds, these costs would be about average. But Harry didn’t want to be average. He wanted to follow a simple principle designated statistically superior by virtually every academic study that has ever been done on mutual funds. Harry wanted to buy products called Index Funds. They are cheap, diversified, and nobody but Harry stands to benefit from them when Harry makes his purchase.

But, did not having an “investment professional” at the helm hurt Harry’s account during the market downturn? After all, the market drop of 2008/2009 was the biggest market decline since 1973/1974. It was much bigger than the overall drop in 1987.

Should Harry have had his money managed by a professional? Would they have been able to save his account? The answer to those questions, are “Nope” and “Nope”.

Harry has done very well on his own. You see, Harry was pretty smart. He knew that, because he was retired, he’d want a portfolio that had only half of it exposed to the stock market. The other half, he wanted exposed to the bond market—but safe, government bond indexes only.

And when the stock market started to get cheap, Harry sold some of his bonds to rebalance his account. With the proceeds, he bought some cheaper stock indexes.

Harry took some money out when the markets were low also, when he needed some cash for an airplane he was working on. But Harry was smart. The stock markets were cheap then, so Harry took that money from his bond indexes—which hadn’t dropped in value.

Harry hasn’t made a fortune since August, 2008, but he has made a profit of $3,578.06, which you can see below.

portvalview

But are there Canadian balanced mutual funds that would have performed as well, if not better? If the answer is, “yes”, I haven’t been able to find them. Over that time period, they would have needed to make about 4%-5% more than Harry, before fees, just to keep pace with Harry’s account. A quick look at www.globefund.com reveals that if they do exist, they’re scarce. I sure wasn’t able to find them.

Simply, if Harry had bought some professionally managed balanced funds, he wouldn’t have done as well. I’ve picked on the big Canadian bank mutual funds with my other postings, so I’ll broaden my horizons here to compare Harry’s account with some of the alternative fund companies.


Acuity Canadian Balanced

as of Dec 3, 2009

He would have been about $20,000 worse off with the acuity balanced fund:

acuity-bal-031209

 

 divider


AIM Canadian Balanced

as of Dec 3, 2009

He would have been about $21,000 behind if he bought the AIM Balanced Fund:

aim-bal-031209

 

divider


BonaVista Canadian Equity

as of Dec 3, 2009

 He would have been about $25,000 behind with the Bona Vista Canadian balanced fund:

 bonavista-031209

 

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Davis-Rea Balanced Pooled

as of Dec 3, 2009

He would have been about $27,000 behind with the Davis-Rea Balanced Fund:

 davisrea-031209

 

divider


Invesco Trimark Core Cdn Bal Cl

as of Dec 3, 2009

 He would have been about $25,000 behind with the Invesco Trimark Balanced Fund:

invesco-031209

 

divider


TD FundSmart Mgd Balanced Grt-P

as of Dec 3, 2009

And he would have been roughly $16,000 behind if he bought the TD Fundsmart Managed Balanced Fund:

 tdfunds-031209

 

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Brigata Canadian Balanced-A

as of Dec 3, 2009

He’d be about $16,000 behind with  Brigata Canadian Balanced-A too:

brigata-031209

 

 divider


Clarica SF Portfolio Series Bal

as of Dec 3, 2009

 And he’d be about $30,000 behind with the Clarica Balanced Series:

 clarica-031209

 

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In case you’re wondering why I picked balanced funds to compare with Harry’s account—there are a couple of reasons:

  • Reason 1

A balanced fund is the single fund that most closely resembles Harry’s portfolio. And other than straight bond funds (that avoided the stock market completely) they had the best performance since August, 2008.

  • Reason 2

If I compared with a 100% stock fund, regardless of which one I chose, the comparative results would have been disastrous. Harry would have looked like a genius.

And Harry is no genius. What he did with his own account, you could have done with yours. And you could do it now, if you want to.

Avoid high cost mutual funds if you can. Buy low cost index funds instead.

And do me a favour. If you can, find me a Canadian balanced mutual fund that has outperformed Harry’s indexed account from August 15, 2008, until December 4, 2009. After all fees, Harry made 1.3% during this time frame.

But if you can find me some better balanced funds, I’ll then show Harry.

 After all, Harry might be getting a very big head over all this.

…continue to track the progress of Harry’s Account  from the right menu

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