Toddlers May Be Better At Stock Market Forecasting

Most people who watch stock market-based television programs tune in to hear experts make predictions.  

But they rarely bother to check to see if those predictions pan out.  Laughably, most of the world’s “experts” have brutal track records.  

Most toddlers would do better. And I have proof:

Read the rest of my Globe and Mail article.





Andrew Hallam

I’m a financial columnist for Canada’s national paper, The Globe and Mail, as well as for AssetBuilder, a financial service firm based in Texas. I’m also the author of Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School (2nd Ed. Wiley 2017) and The Global Expatriate’s Guide To Investing: From Millionaire Teacher to Millionaire Expat (Wiley 2015). My mission is to educate, motivate and inspire people on basic retirement planning and best practices for investing, using evidence-based strategies. I'm happy to comment on your questions. However, please read the Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and the Comments Policy.

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19 Responses

  1. HY says:

    Dear Andrew

    I am looking for the site administrator to inform that the link to the below page is broken but I could only find this site.

    Sorry if it is not the appropriate site.

    I have read the article a few times and was going to act on it until the link becomes broken.

    Please help.

    http://andrewhallam.com/2010/10/singaporeans-inve

    • HY,

      My apologies for the link. For some reason, some of these Globe and Mail articles are a bit sticky. And I don't know why.

      My apologies for this. It's frustrating.

      Thanks so much for letting me know.

      Andrew

  2. Barry says:

    HY

    I *clicked* on the link you provided and works fine for me?

    Barry

    • Thanks Barry,

      Links to these Globe and Mail articles seem quite temperamental.

      Thanks for letting me know that you could access this one. Unfortunately, HY was unable to. Hmmm. This is strange stuff, I agree!

  3. sm says:

    Hi Andrew,

    Question for your about buying VTI and VEA. I already purchased bonds for the 25% of my portfolio last Thursday. As I was getting ready to purchase VTI and VEA, I hesitated when I saw the price of these ETFS. I would have bought VTI at $73. Should I wait til the price falls since the P/E is 25.86?

    -sm

  4. Wade says:

    Would Andrew consider Vanguard's " Life Strategy Moderate Growth Fund" to be a good investment?

  5. Gaby says:

    Hey Andrew,

    Just had a question with respect to a LIRA account. When investing in index funds how should the money be allocated since no new money can be added to the account? The pension payout amount is not a huge amount and retirement is still far ahead for me and my husband so I am not sure what percentage should be in stocks and bonds, since we are unable to balance the account? Should I just base it off our age now (30% CA bonds and 70% say in a INT Index)?

    Thanks,

    Gaby

    • Hi Gaby,

      I wasn't aware that you couldn't balance a LIRA account. I've been out of Canada too long, I guess.

      If you can't rebalance it (although that does seem very strange to me) then a 60/40 stock/bond allocation would work well. But you really can't rebalance a LIRA?

  6. Wade says:

    Andrew, does Vanguard's " Life Strategy Moderate Growth " fund (VSMGX) , meet your criteria as a good, balanced, index fund?

  7. Hi Wade,

    The fund you mentioned is this one: http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?t=vsmgx

    It has 40% bonds, with the remaining in stock indexes.

    is it suitable for you? Perhaps, but that depends on your age and risk tolerance. If you are 20 years old, I would say that it's too conservative. If you are 60 years old, it could be a tad risky.

    As for fees and the ability that Vanguard has to rebalance it: two thumbs up!

  8. Wade says:

    Thanks Andrew.

    I am 65 so maybe Vanguards Life Strategy Conservative Growth fund (VSCGX), would be more suitable.

  9. Gaby says:

    Hi Andrew,

    Yes, you are correct 🙂 You can rebalance a LIRA just can't add any fresh money. So in this case would I base it off my age and sell and rebalance when needed?

    Thanks,

    Gabriella

    • Hi Gaby,

      Just rebalance it annually, while ensuring that the bond component creeps upwards every few years. For example, a 30 year old might want 30% in bonds. But when they are 40, they may increase that to 40%.

  10. Albert says:

    Hi Andrew,

    Last message did not go thru, so here it is again:

    Been reading your posts and got inspired to build a passively managed portfolio of ETFs index and bond index.

    I see that you once recommend to have a home bias for the bond index, im from Indonesia and as far as i know indonesian bonds are not indexed, what bond index would you recommend me buy?

    Lastly, do you have any suggestions on a good online broker for me to use to purchase US ETFs?

    Thanks in advance! You have a great and sincere website!

    • Hi Albert,

      You could buy an international government bond index. The ticker symbol ISHG would do the trick. I don't know of any brokerage options in your home country. They may be limited. But I do know that you could open an account with DBS Vickers in Singapore and transfer the money here. Many people who don't live in Singapore have been able to do that. If they say no, then ask to speak to somebody else at DBS Vickers. You can do it.

      • Albert says:

        Hi Andrew,

        Thanks for the reply.

        I'm 28 years old, so getting the cues from you im looking at investing 30% in international bonds and the other 70% in equities. A mix between total world index and US index should do it? Any reason why you recommend US index as opposed to other index funds?

        It turns out dbsvickers has a branch here in Jakarta, i'm checking them out.

        Cheers

  11. Albert says:

    Hi Andrew

    Im now preparing to open an account with dbsvickers indonesia, which i hope can help me open an online dbsvickers account in sg.

    Question is, im an indonesian citizen and resident, however the indonesian stock market doesnt have an index fund following it, what should i buy?

    My preliminary allocation looks like this since ive just turned 28:

    28% in Intl Govt Bond Index (ISHG)

    36% in total world stock (VT or VXUS)

    BIG QUESTION:

    36% in home country stock?? For this what fund should i choose? Should i just choose VTI as we assume US to be more stable than emerging markets in the long haul?

    Hope you could reply this soon..im so keen to start an indexed portfolio!

    Cheers

    Albert

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